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UPBOUND GROUP, INC. (UPBD)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 delivered steady top-line and EPS growth, with consolidated revenue up 7.5% y/y to $1.16B and non-GAAP diluted EPS up 7.7% y/y to $1.12, finishing above guidance midpoints; Adjusted EBITDA rose 7% y/y to $133.2M, with sequential margin expansion (+80 bps) .
- Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue and non-GAAP EPS were modest beats, while EBITDA fell below the consensus metric (definition differences vs company-adjusted). Revenue $1,157.5M vs $1,143.9M*, EPS $1.12 vs $1.055*, EBITDA $117.6M* (company Adjusted EBITDA: $133.2M) . Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.
- FY25 guidance: midpoint for non-GAAP EPS raised to $4.05–$4.40 (vs $4.00–$4.40 prior); revenue ($4.60–$4.75B) and FCF ($150–$200M) unchanged; Adj. EBITDA ex-SBC range tightened to $515–$535M (midpoint unchanged) .
- Stock narrative catalysts: sustained double-digit growth and margin lift at Acima, Brigit scaling with new products/marketing, Rent‑A‑Center (RAC) stabilization initiatives, and clarity on legal accruals/settlement progress; Q3 guide implies continued revenue/EPS momentum with non-GAAP EPS $0.95–$1.05 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Acima delivered its seventh straight quarter of GMV growth (+16% y/y), with applications up nearly 20% y/y and EBITDA margin +40 bps y/y; returning customers exceeded 40% of GMV, and Marketplace GMV grew >130% y/y .
- Brigit grew revenue nearly 40% y/y with ARPU +12.5% y/y; paying subscribers +24% y/y; EBITDA margin ~28% on timing of marketing; line-of-credit pilot (up to $500; up to 9 months) adds to product optionality .
- Guidance quality and execution: Q2 results exceeded midpoint across guided metrics; company raised midpoint of FY25 non-GAAP EPS and added Q3 guidance; non-GAAP EPS benefitted by ~$0.025 from lower SBC due to leadership transition timing .
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What Went Wrong
- Consolidated GAAP margins compressed: operating margin 4.4% vs 7.5% y/y, impacted by $65.5M pre-tax special items (notably $31.7M legal accrual) .
- Rent‑A‑Center revenue declined 7.1% y/y with SSS -4%, reflecting 2024 underwriting tightening, product exits (e.g., mobile phones), and lower deliveries; RAC Adjusted EBITDA margin fell 170 bps y/y to 14.6% .
- Legal/regulatory overhang: multi-state AG matter accrual increased; $14M McBurnie class action settlement reached in principle after quarter-end (substantially reserved at 6/30); management will update accruals as negotiations progress .
Financial Results
Consolidated performance vs prior year and prior quarter
Segment breakdown
Consensus vs Actual (S&P Global; Q2 2025)
Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.
Non-GAAP adjustments (Q2 2025 EPS, per reconciliation)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Acima’s growth algorithm continues to deliver sustainable, double-digit GMV growth, and Brigit’s growth curve is powered by its marketing and product innovation efforts.”
- “The Q2 GMV from Acima's Marketplace was up over 130% y/y... returning customers now exceeds 40% of GMV.”
- “Brigit's adjusted EBITDA margin was nearly 28%... Our customer acquisition efforts will significantly expand across the balance of the year... we expect EBITDA margins will decrease to the low teens range.”
- “Rent-A-Center deliveries... stabilized across the quarter... we will roll out new initiatives to spur customer engagement... focus on digital and online capabilities.”
- “We recorded an additional accrual of $31.7 million in the second quarter... agreement in principle for $14 million to settle the McBurnie matter.”
Q&A Highlights
- Rent‑A‑Center outlook: Underwriting tightening and removal of low-profit mobile phones impacted top line; without these moves, SSS would have been flat to slightly up; expect lapping benefits in 2H25 and aim to return to positive SSS into 2026 .
- Brigit strategy: Ramp marketing channels (including social, in‑store/at POS) in 2H; piloting line-of-credit up to $500 with up to 9‑month terms; integration synergies targeted more in 2026 (cash-flow underwriting/data sharing) .
- Acima loss metrics: Slight sequential uptick driven by mix (jewelry growth), but still within range; margin expanded y/y despite mix .
- Leverage and capital allocation: YTD FCF $117M supports deleveraging toward ~2x over next couple years; M&A not a focus near-term as internal opportunities are substantial .
- Legal matters: Majority of accrual relates to multi-state AG matter; McBurnie settlement substantially reserved at quarter-end .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue (actual $1,157.5M) exceeded $1,143.9M*; non-GAAP diluted EPS (actual $1.12) exceeded $1.055*; EBITDA (consensus $131.2M*) below the S&P “actual” $117.6M*, noting definitional differences with company Adjusted EBITDA of $133.2M . Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.
- Implications: Street may lift FY25 EPS modestly given raised midpoint and momentum at Acima/Brigit; scrutiny likely on RAC recovery cadence and the level/timing of legal expense normalization .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix-led durability: Acima’s double-digit GMV (+16% y/y) with margin expansion and rising returning-customer mix (>40%) underscores sustainable growth even as furniture remains soft .
- Brigit scaling: Nearly 40% revenue growth with ARPU expansion and a new line‑of‑credit pilot broadens TAM; expect lower H2 EBITDA margins as marketing ramps to drive subscriber growth into holiday season .
- RAC bridge to stabilization: Underwriting discipline and digital initiatives (pre‑approvals, agentic AIs, referral program) aim to stabilize deliveries and rebuild lease portfolio; comp lapping should aid 2H25/2026 trajectory .
- Guidance quality: FY25 EPS midpoint raised; Q3 guide implies continued EPS momentum; free cash flow intact ($150–$200M) and leverage targeted to trend toward ~2x over time .
- Legal overhang manageable: Additional accruals recognized; one class action settled in principle post‑quarter; monitor multi-state AG outcome as a gating factor on multiple expansion .
- Trading lens: Near‑term upside tied to continued Acima outperformance and Brigit subscriber growth; watch RAC SSS stabilization evidence and legal updates; consensus EPS may drift higher while EBITDA definition differences remain a modeling nuance .
Note: No additional Q2 2025 press releases beyond the 8‑K earnings materials were found in the period searched . All financials and commentary cited from company filings and transcripts as referenced above. Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.